“OPEC must maintain the perception that the market is determining the price level,” Cohen said. Provide any price targets or guidance OPEC and especially Saudi Arabia is unlikely to indicate a price range they are comfortable with. Choose a new OPEC Secretary OPEC Secretary General Abdallah El- Badri’s tenure was extended last November by a year, but the group is unlikely to nominate a new successor at the meeting.ĩ. While Iraq’s production has risen by a million bpd over the past 12 months, OPEC ministers are also unlikely to curb Iraqi production give the country’s fragile political situation and existential war with terrorist group ISIS.Įxpect OPEC officials to go out of their way to emphasise that message – “shale is not our enemy.”Ĩ. ![]() ![]() Answer the hypothetical on everyone’s mind regarding Iraq Iraq is exempt from country-quotas as it has traditionally argued that it must maximise production to support its war-ravaged economy. Answer the hypothetical on everyone’s mind regarding Iran If Iran manages to strike a nuclear deal with global powers, as much as 500,000 bpd of additional Iranian oil could come on to the market by the first quarter of 2016.ĭue to heightened uncertainty with a deal, Barclay’s thinks OPEC is likely to take a wait-and-see approach to the prospect of additional oil.ĥ. “Heightened geopolitical risk, historical precedent, and a lack of enforcement tools mean that specific country level production quotas will be out of reach for OPEC this time,” Cohen said.Ĥ. ![]() This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.
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